Scarred but Wiser
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The paper formalizes and tests the
hypothesis that greater exposure to big shocks induces
stronger societal responses for adaptation and protection
from future big shocks. Support for this hypothesis is found
in various strands of the literature and in new empirical
tests using cross-country data on deaths due to COVID-19 and
deaths during World War 2. Countries with higher death rates
in the war saw lower death rates during the COVID-19
pandemic. The tests are robust to a wide range of model
specifications and alternative assumptions.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC SHOCK, PANDEMIC, SOCIETAL RESPONSE, WAR DEATHS, PREPAREDNESS, PANDEMIC RESPONSE, COVID-19, CORONAVIRUS, WARTIME EXPERIENCE