Unlocking future investments in Uganda’s commercial forest sector
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Key messages:
- Supplies of pine produced by commercial plantations will increase rapidly over the next 5 years. Pine plantations planted in the early 2000’s will soon mature, leading to an increase from roughly 200 000 m3 of pine production currently, to 800 000 m3 in 2023, and stabilizing at 1.2 million m3 after that.
- Exporting timber from Uganda is impeded by restrictive policies. Numerous approval requirements and a lack of approved grading standards substantially hinder access to export licenses for timber. These restrictions are suppressing domestic prices relative to neighboring countries.
- Trade restrictions hinder the profitability of commercial pine production. Based on average production costs and current domestic prices the Net Present Value of investment in commercial pine production ranges between negative USD 368 and negative USD 657 per hectare.
- Removing export restrictions is critical to attract and sustain future investments in pine plantations and sawmilling. Access to higher prices offered in regional export markets contributes to a positive Net Present Value of pine plantation investments, in most scenarios, and a positive Net Present Value for investment in sawmilling.
