Optimal Path for Global Land Use under Climate Change Uncertainty
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This study seeks assess how the uncertainties associated with the un-
derlying biophysical processes in
uence the optimal profile of land use
over the next century, in light of potential irreversibility in these deci-
sions. Our analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model of global
land use, and employs 3 modeling scenarios constructed using global crop
simulation and climate models. The results of the deterministic model
show that climate impacts appear to have mixed effects on yields - higher
temperatures hurt food production but this effect is partially offset by
greater CO2 fertilization effect. Declining food crop yields result in rela-
tively small expansion of cropland and accumulated GHG emissions from
land use change. We then contrast this optimal path to that obtained
when the uncertainty is not ignored, thereby demonstrating significance
of factoring uncertainty in the optimization stage.