Predicted climate change impact on natural teak forests in the Greater Mekong sub-region
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Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable hardwood species. Natural teak forests, largely distributed in South Asia and Southeast Asia, but they are in danger because of over-exploitation, non-sustainable management, encroachment, and potentially the long-term effect of climate change. The objectives of this research are to predict the presence and future geographical range of natural teak forests in the Greater Mekong Sub-region, and to determine the effectiveness of protected areas for in-situ conservation. Geo-referenced species occurrences of natural teak across the Mekong region were gathered from previous studies and ongoing ITTO Teak Project in Mekong. In addition, potential environmental requirement variables were developed or gathered from various sources. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt Model), a present-only spatial distribution model was employed to generate present and predicted species range in 2050 under the CMIP6 scenarios. The results of species distribution models show that the suitable habitats of native teak are likely stable by 2050 as the result of wide climatic tolerance range. However, its distribution in southern Myanmar and northeast Lao PDR would loss climatic suitable habitats, whereas semievergreen forests in northern Myanmar are becoming more suitable by all scenarios.
Keywords: Distribution range, teak, conservation, Mekong, protected areas
ID: 3486560