Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach
| dc.creator | Berg, Ernst | |
| dc.creator | Huffaker, Ray | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T15:02:19Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T09:21:30Z | |
| dc.description | We investigated German hog-price dynamics with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied nonlinear time series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory) model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology), and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers. | |
| dc.identifier | Other:ISSN 2194-511X | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.206210 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206210/files/03-Berg_Huffaker-paper.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206210 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/608186 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/206210 | |
| dc.title | Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach | |
| dc.type | Text |