Local Employment Growth, Migration, and Public Land Policy: Evidence from the Northwest Forest Plan
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Debates over protecting public land reveal two views. Some argue protection reduces
commodity production, reducing local employment and increasing out-migration.
Others contend protection produces amenities that support job growth and attract
migrants. We test these competing views for the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP),
which reallocated 11 million acres of federal land from timber production to protecting
old-growth forest species. We find evidence that land protection directly reduced local
employment growth and increased net migration. The total negative effect on
employment was offset only slightly by positive migration-driven effects. Employment
losses were concentrated in metropolitan counties, but percentage losses were higher in
rural counties.