Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches

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dc.creatorBrouziyne, Youssef
dc.creatorAbouabdillah, A.
dc.creatorChehbouni, Abdelghani
dc.creatorHanich, L.
dc.creatorBergaoui, Karim
dc.creatorMcDonnell, Rachael
dc.creatorBenaabidate, L.
dc.date2020-08-19
dc.date2020-08-26T06:38:13Z
dc.date2020-08-26T06:38:13Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T18:37:37Z
dc.descriptionUnderstanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from -45.6% to -76.7% under RCP4.5, and from -66.7% to -95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/109073
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/161143
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBrouziyne, Y.; Abouabdillah, A.; Chehbouni, A.; Hanich, L.; Bergaoui, Karim; McDonnell, Rachael; Benaabidate, L. 2020. Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches. Water, 12(9):2333. (Special issue: Modeling Global Change Impacts on Water Resources: Selected Papers from the 2019/2020 SWAT International Conferences) [doi: 10.3390/w12092333]
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjectvulnerability
dc.subjecthydrological factors
dc.subjectweather forecasting
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.subjectwater resources
dc.subjectwatersheds
dc.subjectwater yield
dc.subjectmeteorological factors
dc.subjectrisk management
dc.subjectprecipitation
dc.subjectrain
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectland use
dc.subjectrunoff
dc.subjectevapotranspiration
dc.titleAssessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches
dc.typeJournal Article

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