Risk, Research, and Returns: Valuation of the Potential of Improved Citrus Cultivars
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The U.S. citrus industry faces potentially devastating losses due to diseases currently infecting or
threatening citrus groves. Potential exists in the development of genetically modified citrus
trees that are resistant to disease. Growers face risk not only from losses attributable to disease,
but also in their decisions to invest in establishing groves. Scenarios including hypothetical
disease resistant citrus cultivars as well as forecasted tree losses, fruit prices, and costs are
modeled and evaluated with risk ranking to identify the potential benefit of adopting improved
citrus cultivars. Returns to the grower are the primary focus, however, returns to organizations
producing disease resistant cultivars are also modeled.