Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability

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dc.creatorAnderson, W. B.
dc.creatorSeager, R.
dc.creatorBaethgen, W.
dc.creatorCane, M.
dc.creatorYou, Liangzhi
dc.date2019-07-03
dc.date2024-06-21T09:05:06Z
dc.date2024-06-21T09:05:06Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:37:39Z
dc.descriptionLarge-scale modes of climate variability can force widespread crop yield anomalies and are therefore often presented as a risk to food security. We quantify how modes of climate variability contribute to crop production variance. We find that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) together account for 18, 7, and 6% of globally aggregated maize, soybean, and wheat production variability, respectively. The lower fractions of global-scale soybean and wheat production variability result from substantial but offsetting climate-forced production anomalies. All climate modes are important in at least one region studied. In 1983, ENSO, the only mode capable of forcing globally synchronous crop failures, was responsible for the largest synchronous crop failure in the modern historical record. Our results provide the basis for monitoring, and potentially predicting, simultaneous crop failures.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/145819
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/109869
dc.languageen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAnderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Baethgen, W.; Cane, M.; and You, Liangzhi. 2019. Synchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability. Science Advances 5(7): eaaw1976. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1976
dc.subjectspatial data
dc.subjectagricultural production
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectcrop production
dc.subjectcrop losses
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleSynchronous crop failures and climate-forced production variability
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)