Achieving Accelerated and Shared Growth in Ghana : A MAMS-Based Analysis of Costs and Opportunities
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper relies on the recently
developed Maquette for Millennium Development Goals
Simulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency of
alternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth and
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. In
the baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near and
medium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position to
achieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead of
schedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusive
before 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario-which
addresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and other
infrastructure-even more rapid growth and poverty reduction
are possible, but important targets in the areas of
education, health, and environment remain unattainable.
Although growth is complementary to achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals, the authors also find
important growth-human development trade-offs in the near
term. The estimates show that the resource requirements for
achieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 are
large, reaching US$82 per capita in an illustrative
foreign-grant financed scenario. Increased intake and
retention of students contribute to rising scarcity of
unskilled labor, buttressing unskilled wages, while high
demand for skills from the sectors related to the Millennium
Development Goals raises the returns to human capital. These
developments lead to improvements in the welfare of the
poorest members of Ghanaian society and contribute to a
small reduction in overall inequality.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO SAFE WATER, ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL, ADDITIONAL FINANCING, ALLOCATION, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL RATE, AUDITOR GENERAL, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE LEVEL, BASELINE SCENARIO, BASIC EDUCATION, BORROWING, BUDGET DOCUMENTS, BUDGETING, CALCULATION, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CONSUMER, CONTRIBUTION, CONTRIBUTIONS, CURRENT EXPENDITURES, DEBT, DEBT RELIEF, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEMAND FOR SERVICES, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DISAGGREGATED LEVEL, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DONOR ASSISTANCE, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC POLICY, EDUCATION SERVICES, EDUCATION SYSTEM, EFFICIENCY GAINS, ELASTICITIES, ESTIMATED ELASTICITY, EXPORT TAXES, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FISCAL PRUDENCE, FOREIGN BORROWING, FOREIGN GRANTS, GINI COEFFICIENT, GINI INDEX, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT POLICIES, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GROWTH COMPONENT, GROWTH EFFECT, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH PROCESS, GROWTH PROSPECTS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SECTOR, HIGH GROWTH, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT TAXES, IMPROVEMENTS IN POLICIES, INCOME DISPARITIES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INCREASE IN INCOME, INDEPENDENT VARIABLE, INFANT, INFANT HEALTH, INFANT MORTALITY, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR SUPPLY, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONG RUN, LONG-TERM GROWTH, LOW-INCOME, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOW-INCOME COUNTRY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET PRICES, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES, MEAN GROWTH, MEDICAL CARE, MEDIUM TERM, MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK, MILLENNIUM DECLARATION, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DATA, NUMERICAL TARGETS, OIL PRICES, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY PACKAGES, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL STABILITY, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY OUTCOMES, POVERTY REDUCING, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE GOODS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, PRO-POOR, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRESS, PROSPERITY, PUBLIC ACCOUNTS, PUBLIC ACTIVITIES, PUBLIC BUDGET, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC PROGRAMS, PUBLIC PROVISION, PUBLIC RESOURCES, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SERVICE, PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, QUALITY OF EDUCATION, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, REDUCED FORM EQUATION, REDUCING POVERTY, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS, RESPECT, RISING DEMAND, SAFE WATER, SANITATION, SANITATION FACILITIES, SANITATION SERVICES, SAVINGS, SCHOOL FEES, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SECTORAL ANALYSES, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE PROVISION, SET OF GOALS, SKILLED WORKERS, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL SERVICES, SOCIAL SPENDING, SOURCE OF INFORMATION, SPILLOVER, SPILLOVER EFFECTS, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS, TAX RATES, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TOTAL COST, TOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING, TRADE OFFS, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKER, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URBAN AREAS, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGE, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WORLD MARKETS