Institutional Change, Policy Challenges, and Macroeconomic Performance
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Debates over the nature and direction of
economic policy in Iran have intensified rather than abated
after the tumultuous changes brought about by the revolution
in 1979. In the span of these three decades, Iran has
witnessed sweeping institutional changes and has been
affected by significant economic and political upheavals. At
the macroeconomic level, too, there have been a number of
shocks ranging from oil booms and busts, to war (with Iraq),
trade sanctions, and internal political strife. This paper
uses Iran's experience to reflect on growth and
development in the context of political upheaval and an
uncertain institutional environment. It is a premise of the
paper that Iran's recent past presents a rare,
'laboratory' like, case for the study of growth
and development in a broad context. This paper examines
post-revolutionary Iran's macroeconomic policies and
performance in a comparative context, appraising it against
Iran's past trends and real potential. It shows how
recurrent cycles of populism and pragmatism have
characterized this period. The paper argues that two sets of
factors have conditioned Iran's performance and will
continue to taint her prospects for sustainable growth into
the future. These are: (i) Iran's limited economic
diversification and continued dependence on the oil sector,
and (ii) the institutional setting in which
post-revolutionary economic policies have been formulated
and implemented for much of the last three decades.
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ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL % GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL IMPORTS, AVERAGING, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISES, BANK CREDITS, BANK LOANS, BANKING, BANKING SYSTEM, BILL, BILLS, BLACK MARKET, BONDS, BRAIN DRAIN, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL GOODS, CENTRAL BANK, CLARITY, COMMODITIES, COMMUNICATION, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS, CREDIT, CURRENCY, CURRENCY CRISES, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DEBT, DEBT CRISES, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT SERVICE, DEBTS, DECISION MAKING, DEFICIT, DEMOCRACIES, DEMOCRACY, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEPRESSIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES, DEVELOPMENT PATH, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DISTORTIONS, DIVIDEND, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC SAVINGS, ECONOMIC BOOM, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC ORDER, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC RESOURCES, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC TRENDS, ECONOMIES, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT POLICY, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUITY, EXCESS LIQUIDITY, EXCHANGE, EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM, EXCHANGE REGIME, EXCHANGE RESTRICTIONS, EXPECTATIONS, EXPORT REVENUES, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL EQUILIBRIUM, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL REFORMS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL REFORMS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN COMPETITION, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROLS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN LOANS, FOREIGN TRADE, FUTURE, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBALIZATION, GOODS, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH INFLATION, IMBALANCES, IMPORT, IMPORT COMPRESSION, IMPORTS, INCENTIVES, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INEFFICIENCY, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT, INSURANCE, INTEREST, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LABOR MARKETS, LDCS, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARDS, M2, MACROECONOMIC BALANCE, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC LEVEL, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC REFORMS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMICS, MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY EXPANSION, MULTIPLE EXCHANGE RATE, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL ECONOMIES, OIL ECONOMY, OIL EXPORT, OIL EXPORTER, OIL EXPORTS, OIL MARKETS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL REVENUE, OIL REVENUES, OUTCOMES, OUTPUT, OWNERSHIP, PAYMENTS, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL STRIFE, POLITICAL UPHEAVAL, POLITICAL UPHEAVALS, POPULATION GROWTH, POSTWAR PERIOD, POSTWAR YEARS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CONTROLS, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICES, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE PROPERTY, PUBLIC FINANCES, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH RATES, REAL INCOME, RECESSION, REFORM PROGRAM, REJECTION, SHARE, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SHORT-TERM TRADE, SHORTFALL, SLOW GROWTH, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUBSIDIES, SUBSIDY, SUPPLY, SUPPLY SIDE, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX REFORMS, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL INVESTMENT, TRACK RECORD, TRADE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE FINANCE, TRADE POLICY, TRENDS, TROUGH, UNCERTAINTY, UNDUE INFLUENCE, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE, VARIABLES, VOLATILITY, WEALTH, WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS