An Economic Analysis of Beverage Size Restrictions
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We model the potential efficiency and distributional consequences of a government beverage-size restriction that is designed to curb or reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Unsurprisingly, we find that a credibly implemented restriction can curb consumption, particularly by “high-type” consumers who consume large amounts of sweetened beverages. Surprisingly, we find that for small to moderate restrictions that might be consistent with the magnitude of the NYC soda-ban, consumer welfare will be unaffected by the regulation. Instead, most consumption inefficiency induced welfare losses will be borne by sellers. Thus, policy debates concerning welfare losses from soft-drink sales should focus on business losses rather than consumer welfare losses.