The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis

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dc.creatorAragie, Emerta A.
dc.creatorTaffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
dc.creatorTamru, Seneshaw
dc.date2020-12-01
dc.date2024-05-22T12:12:41Z
dc.date2024-05-22T12:12:41Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:07:28Z
dc.descriptionThe COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/143240
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/95252
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAragie, Emerta; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; and Tamru, Seneshaw. 2020. The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis. ESSP Working Paper 154. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134182.
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjecteconomic impact
dc.subjectpolicies
dc.subjectcovid-19
dc.subjecthouseholds
dc.subjectwelfare
dc.subjectgross national product
dc.subjectmultipliers
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.titleThe short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)