Climate Change, Agricultural Trade and Global Food Security
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The present research was commissioned as backgroud paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2018.
Climate is an essential input to agricultural production. Changes in climate will inevitably have an impact on agricultural productivity, output, farm incomes and prices. Elevated temperatures will also affect human and animal health. To date, most of the studies of climate impacts on agriculture have ignored the impacts on humans and livestock, focusing instead on the consequences for crop production. One of the foremost reasons is that research on crop impacts assessment is the field where the necessary modelling infrastructure was most fully developed.
The present paper provides an overview of the latest modelling research on the impact of climate change and agriculture. It specifically focuses on different modelling approaches that include the interlinkages between climate change and trade, and the potential role trade can play to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change.