The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries : A Comparative Analysis
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate
change is a serious global threat. The scientific evidence
is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas
emissions and associated global warming could well promote
SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup
of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce
a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the
consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries.
Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used
to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated
global data on critical impact elements (land, population,
agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the
inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal
that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world
are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and
accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe
for many. At the country level, results are extremely
skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small
number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam,
A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences
of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others,
including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute
magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other
extreme, many developing countries experience limited
impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and
North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date,
there is little evidence that the international community
has seriously considered the implications of SLR for
population location and infrastructure planning in
developing countries. The authors hope that the information
provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURE, ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS, ANTARCTICA, ASPECT, ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION, BIODIVERSITY, CENTER, CENTRE, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, COAST, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL STATES, DATA QUALITY, DATA SETS, DATA SOURCES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DIGITAL ELEVATION, DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL, FLOODS, FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GDP, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM, GIS, GLACIERS, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HEAT WAVES, HUMAN ACTIVITY, ICE CAPS, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IPCC, LAKES, LAND AREA, LAND SURFACE, LAND USE, MIDDLE EAST, NATIONAL POPULATION, NORTH AFRICA, NUMBER OF PEOPLE, OVERLAY, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, PROGRESS, QUALITY ASSURANCE, QUALITY CONTROL, REGIONAL IMPACTS, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, RISING SEA LEVELS, RIVER, RIVER DELTAS, SAHARA, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE, SEA LEVEL, SEA LEVEL RISE, SHORELINES, SOUTH ASIAN, STORMS, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, TA, THE GAMBIA, TOLERANCE, URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE, URBAN POPULATION, WAVES, WETLAND, WETLANDS, WETLANDS LOSS