Projection of climate change impacts on net primary productivity of the legal Amazon - Brazil.

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dc.contributorLUCAS AUGUSTO PEREIRA DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE UBERLÂNDIA; CRISTIANO MARCELO PEREIRA DE SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; CLAUDIONOR RIBEIRO DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE UBERLÂNDIA; EDSON LUIS BOLFE, CNPTIA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; ANDRE MEDEIROS ROCHA, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO.
dc.creatorSILVA, L. A. P. da
dc.creatorSOUZA, C. M. P. de
dc.creatorSILVA, C. R. da
dc.creatorBOLFE, E. L.
dc.creatorROCHA, A. M.
dc.date2023-02-08T16:01:20Z
dc.date2023-02-08T16:01:20Z
dc.date2023-02-08
dc.date2023
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T04:17:13Z
dc.descriptionAbstract. The Amazon Rainforest is one of the main carbon sinks (CO2) on Earth. However, recently, owing to anthropogenic activities and climate change, it has lost its stability in CO2 absorption. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of future climate change scenarios is essential. We assessed the influence of future climate change scenarios on NPP (biomass) levels in the Amazon Forest using ML models. The tested models were Bayesian, linear, and random forest models. The current scenario was evaluated using 19 bioclimatic covariates (WorldClim dataset). Future scenarios were based on RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 (based on the MIROC5 and HadGEM2-ES models). Random Forest had the best performance statistics (R² = 0.71 in training and 0.68 in the holdout-test). These climate change scenarios imply an increase in the average NPP for the Amazon forest, especially with the greater intensification in RCP 2.6 (10 and 12 % for the HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 models, respectively). Forests (evergreen broadleaf forest areas) will have a greater carbon fixation capacity. In general, the Amazon forest will have an increased carbon fixation capacity by the end of the century.
dc.identifierCaderno de Geografia, v. 33, n. 72, p. 110-130, jan./mar. 2023.
dc.identifierhttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1151595
dc.identifier10.5752/p.2318-2962.2023v33n.72p.110
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/456440
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectAprendizado de máquina
dc.subjectFloresta Amazônica
dc.subjectFloresta aleatória
dc.subjectSumidouro de carbono
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas
dc.subjectRandom Forest
dc.subjectMachine Learning
dc.subjectCarbon sink
dc.subjectAmazon Forest
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.titleProjection of climate change impacts on net primary productivity of the legal Amazon - Brazil.
dc.typeArtigo de periódico

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