Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Food Production
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Where and how cities grow will
influence food production and the risks to food production.
This paper estimates the overlap of future urban expansion
in 2040 and 2100 with current crop and livestock production
under different climate scenarios. First, it finds that
urban areas will expand most into areas with fruits,
vegetables, and chickens, and urban areas will expand most
under a scenario with significant challenges to climate
change mitigation. Second, the share of food producing areas
that will overlap with urban expansion will be largest in
Africa, particularly under a scenario of significant
challenges to climate change adaptation. Third, across all
scenarios, urban expansion is likely to take place in areas
with higher crop or livestock production, but even more so
when there are significant challenges to both mitigation and adaptation.
Palabras clave
FOOD INSECURITY, AGRICULTURE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE AND AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, URBAN EXPANSION, AGRICULTURE, CROPS AND CLIMATE, LIVESTOCK FARMING