Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper assesses the potential impact
of antimicrobial resistance on global economic growth and
poverty. The analysis uses a global computable general
equilibrium model and a microsimulation framework that
together capture impact channels related to health,
mortality, labor productivity, health care financing, and
production in the livestock and other sectors. The effects
spread across countries via trade flows that may be affected
by new trade restrictions. Relative to a world without
antimicrobial resistance, the losses during 2015–50 may sum
to $85 trillion in gross domestic product and $23 trillion
in global trade (in present value). By 2050, the cost in
global gross domestic product could range from 1.1 percent
(low case) to 3.8 percent (high case). Antimicrobial
resistance is expected to make it more difficult to
eliminate extreme poverty. Under the high antimicrobial
resistance scenario, by 2030, an additional 24.1 million
people would be extremely poor, of whom 18.7 million live in
low-income countries. In general, developing countries will
be hurt the most, especially those with the lowest incomes.
Palabras clave
PANDEMICS, HEALTH, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL