Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture : Ricardian Approach
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This study uses the Ricardian approach
to analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopian
agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying
environmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 of
the country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representing
more than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000
farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue on
climate, household, and soil variables show that these
variables have a significant impact on the farmers' net
revenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impact
analysis of increasing temperature and changing
precipitation across the four seasons. In addition, it
examines the impact of uniform climate scenarios on
farmers' net revenue per hectare. Additionally, it
analyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climate
scenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In
general, the results indicate that increasing temperature
and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopian
agriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate the
carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or the
change in prices for the future, significant information for
policy-making can be extracted.
Palabras clave
AFFORESTATION, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL MARKETING, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, AGRONOMIC PRACTICES, AGRONOMY, ALTITUDE, ANNUAL CROPS, ARABLE LAND, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE, AVERAGE YIELDS, BARLEY, BEANS, BEETS, CAPITA CONSUMPTION, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS, CASH CROPS, CEREAL CROPS, CEREALS, CHICKPEAS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE FORECASTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CO2, COFFEE, COMMODITY, CONDENSATION, CONSUMER SURPLUS, COOPERATIVE EQUILIBRIA, COST MINIMIZATION, COTTON, CROP, CROP MIX, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP VARIETIES, CROP YIELD, CROP YIELDS, CROPLAND, CROPLANDS, CROPPING, CROPPING PATTERNS, CULTIVABLE LAND, CULTIVATION, DATES, DECISION MAKING, DEFORESTATION, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DRAINAGE, DROUGHT, DRY SEASON, ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECOLOGY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC WELFARE, ECONOMICS, ECOSYSTEM, EMISSIONS, ENERGY BALANCE, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, EQUILIBRIUM, FAO, FARM, FARM INCOME, FARM MANAGEMENT, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMS, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZER, FERTILIZERS, FIBERS, FIELD CROPS, FLOODING, FLOODS, FOOD CROPS, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FORESTRY, FOSSIL FUELS, FRUITS, FUEL, FUELWOOD, GARLIC, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GRAIN, GRASSES, GRASSLAND, GREENHOUSE EFFECT, GREENHOUSE GASES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROUNDNUTS, HARVESTING, HERBS, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGY, IFPRI, INCOME, INSECT PESTS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LAND DEGRADATION, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, LAND TENURE, LAND USE, LAND VALUE, LENTILS, MAIZE, MAIZE PRODUCTION, MALARIA, MARGINAL ANALYSIS, MARKET PRICES, MEAT, METEOROLOGY, MILLET, NATURAL RESOURCES, OATS, OIL, OVERGRAZING, PAPAYA, PEAS, PEPPER, PERENNIAL CROPS, PERENNIALS, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, PLANTING, PLANTING DATES, PLOWING, POLICY FORMULATION, POLICY MAKERS, POPULATION GROWTH, POTENTIAL YIELDS, PRECIPITATION, PRESENT VALUE, PRODUCE, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND, PULSES, RAINFALL, RAINFED AGRICULTURE, RAPESEED, RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, RICE, RIVERS, RUNOFF, SEA, SEED, SEEDS, SESAME, SINGLE CROP, SISAL, SMALL-SCALE FARMERS, SOIL, SOIL FERTILITY, SOIL QUALITY, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SORGHUM, SOWING, SOYBEAN, SPECIALIZATION, SPICES, SPRING, SUGAR, SUGAR CANE, SUNFLOWER, TEA, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TENURE, TILLAGE, TILLING, TOBACCO, TRACE GASES, TUBERS, VARIABLE COSTS, VEGETABLES, VEGETATION, VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS, WEEDS, WHEAT, WIND, WINTER WHEAT, WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION, YAMS