Bangladesh Economic Update, April 2011
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Washington, DC
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The outlook for FY2011 has changed since
the last macroeconomic update in October 2010.1 While gross
development product (GDP) growths is still projected to be
around 6.2 percent in FY11, inflationary pressures have
strengthened and the external position has weakened. Rising
energy and food subsidies are placing a strain on the
budget, but higher-than-anticipated revenues and
lower-than-budgeted Annual Development Program expenditures
leave sufficient fiscal space for the government to react to
these pressures. Progress on reforms is mixed, with advances
made on Value Added Tax reforms, efforts to tighten
liquidity and setting up a framework for public-private
partnership projects. Developments on telecommunication
policy, the Anticorruption Commission, and policy responses
to stock market volatility are a cause for concern. The
growth outlook for FY12 remains good but there are risks
that need to be contained. Short-term risks include rising
food and fuel prices, deteriorating remittances, an
increased reserve drawdown, a growing quasi-fiscal deficit,
stock market volatility and its potential impact on the
banking sector. Long-term risks include the inability to
sufficiently alleviate power shortages, raise public
investment, and remove bottlenecks for private investment.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK LENDING, BANK POLICY, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BASIS POINTS, BENEFICIARIES, BROAD MONEY, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGETARY ALLOCATION, BUSINESS ASSOCIATIONS, CASH RESERVE, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CORRUPTION, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT SOURCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DATES, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DOMESTIC MARKET, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT CREDITS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPOSURE, FAIR, FAIR PRICE, FINANCIAL ACCOUNT, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FOOD DISTRIBUTION, FOOD FOR WORK, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD RESOURCES, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUBSIDIES, FOOD SUBSIDY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FORMAL BANKING, FROZEN FOOD, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOOD FAITH, GRAIN PRODUCTION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLDS, HYPOTHECATIONS, INCOME, INFLATION, INFLATION INDEX, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE CAP, INTEREST RATES, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, ISSUANCE, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOCAL MARKET, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MERCHANT, MICROCREDIT, MICROFINANCE, MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS, MIGRANT LABOR, MIGRANT WORKERS, MOBILE PHONE, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY GROWTH, MONEY TRANSFER, MUTUAL FUND, NONPERFORMING LOANS, OIL PRICES, OPEN MARKET, OUTPUT, OVERDRAFT, OVERDRAFT LOANS, PHONE NETWORK, PLEDGES, POLICY RESPONSE, POLICY RESPONSES, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE TRENDS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC STOCK, PUBLIC STOCKS, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, RATES OF INTEREST, REFUGEE, REGULATOR, REGULATORS, REGULATORY AUTHORITY, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, REPAYMENT, REPAYMENT PERIOD, REPO, REPO RATE, REPO RATES, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENT, RESERVES, RETAIL, RETAIL TRADE, SALES, SAVINGS, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCK INDEX, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY, STOCK PRICE, STOCK TRADING, STOCKS, STORAGE CAPACITY, SUGAR, TAX, TEA, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TRANSPARENCY, UNION, URBAN AREAS, VILLAGE, VULNERABLE GROUP, WHEAT