Evaluation of drought prediction in South Asia Drought Management System (SADMS): assessment over India in Kharif 2025
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International Water Management Institute
CGIAR Climate Action Program
CGIAR Climate Action Program
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This report assesses the performance of the drought prediction by the South Asia Drought Management System (SADMS) across India during the Kharif 2025 season. Despite initial forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating above-normal monsoon rainfall under neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, the actual monsoon was highly erratic. Several regions, mainly Northern Bihar, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Assam, and parts of Northeastern India, experienced moderate to severe rainfall deficits and prolonged dry spells during critical crop growth stages. Drought prediction in SADMS uses forecast inputs from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Ensemble Forecast System (NOAA-GEFS) and satellite-based indicators, which successfully identified emerging drought hotspots and seasonal stress patterns. District-level validation in Uttar Pradesh showed moderate predictive skill, with SADMS forecasts reasonably capturing rainfall deficits and demonstrating practical utility for early warning, with marginal classification errors. Bihar and Assam experienced severe seasonal rainfall deficits, with widespread agricultural stress confirmed by negative NDVI anomalies from satellite observations. These findings highlight the spatial variability and complexity of drought impacts. Overall, the evaluation demonstrates that SADMS provides valuable early warning support when combined with ground observations and remote sensing, emphasising the importance of integrated drought monitoring systems for improving agricultural resilience and drought preparedness.
Palabras clave
drought, climate prediction, monsoon climate, dry spells, normalized difference vegetation index