What is the Social Value of Second-Generation Biofuels?

Hertel, Thomas W.; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tyner, Wallace E.

What is the Social Value of Second-Generation Biofuels?

Autores

Hertel, Thomas W.

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs

Tyner, Wallace E.

Editor

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

Descripción

What is second-generation biofuel technology worth to global society? A dynamic, computable partial equilibrium model (called FABLE) is used to assess changes in global land use for crops, livestock, biofuels, forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, with and without second-generation biofuels technology. The difference in the discounted stream of global valuations of land-based goods and services gives the value of second-generation technology to society. Under baseline conditions, this to amounts to $64.2 billion at today's population or an increase of roughly 0.3 percent in the valuation of the world's land resources. This gain arises despite the fact that, in the baseline scenario, the technology does not become commercially viable until 2035. Alternative scenarios considered include: diminished crop yield growth owing to adverse climate impacts, flat energy prices, low economic growth, and high population growth, as well as greenhouse gas regulation. The most important factor driving second-generation valuation is greenhouse gas regulation, which more than doubles the social value of this technology. Flat energy prices essentially eliminate the value of second-generation technology to society, and high population growth reduces its value because of the heightened competition for land for food production.

Palabras clave

ACCESS COSTS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL USES, AGROCHEMICALS, ALLOCATION, ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS, ANNUAL EMISSIONS, ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK, APPROACH, BEQUEST VALUE, BIO-OIL, BIOMASS, BIOMASS CONVERSION, BIOMASS FEEDSTOCK, BIOMASS TO ENERGY, CAPITAL COST, CAPITAL COSTS, CARBON, CARBON EMISSIONS, CARBON FLUXES, CARBON FOOTPRINT, CELLULOSIC BIOMASS, CELLULOSIC FEEDSTOCK, CELLULOSIC FEEDSTOCKS, CHEMICAL PROCESSES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE POLICIES, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE STABILIZATION, CO2, COMBUSTION, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY, CONVERSION OF BIOMASS, CORN STOVER, COST ESTIMATES, COST OF FEEDSTOCK, COST OF PRODUCTION, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL PRICE, DECISION MAKING, DEFORESTATION, DEMAND FOR ENERGY, DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES, DIESEL, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC VALUE, ECONOMICS, ECOSYSTEM, ECOSYSTEMS, EFFICIENT EQUIPMENT, EFFICIENT USE, ELECTRICITY, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION, EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK, EMISSIONS MITIGATION, EMISSIONS TARGETS, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY EXTRACTION, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY PRICE, ENERGY PRICES, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, EQUILIBRIUM, ETHANOL, EXPENDITURES, EXTERNALITIES, FAST PYROLYSIS, FEEDSTOCK, FEEDSTOCK COST, FEEDSTOCK COSTS, FEEDSTOCKS, FERTILIZERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREST, FOREST AREA, FOREST AREAS, FOREST CARBON, FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION, FOREST SINKS, FORESTRY, FORESTRY ACTIVITIES, FORESTRY PRODUCTS, FORESTRY SECTOR, FORESTS, FOSSIL, FOSSIL FUEL, FOSSIL FUEL PRICES, FOSSIL FUELS, FUEL CONSUMPTION, FUEL CONVERSION, FUEL PRICES, GAS TECHNOLOGY, GASOLINE, GENERATION, GHG, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, HYDROCARBONS, HYDROGEN, INCOME, INPUT PRICES, LABOR COSTS, LAND COVER CHANGE, LAND RESOURCES, LAND USE, LAND USE DECISIONS, LIQUID FUEL, LIQUID FUELS, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, METHANE, METHANE EMISSIONS, NATURAL FORESTS, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NITROUS OXIDE, NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS, OIL, OIL EQUIVALENT, OIL MARKETS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICE SCENARIO, OIL PRICES, PASTURE LAND, PASTURES, PETROLEUM, PETROLEUM PRICES, PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POPULATION GROWTH, PRESENT VALUE, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PYROLYSIS, RENEWABLE FUEL, RENEWABLE FUELS, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, RICE PRODUCTION, RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, SUBSTITUTION, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TEMPERATURE, TIMBER, TOTAL COST, TOTAL COSTS, TRANSPORTATION FUELS, UNCERTAINTIES, UTILITY FUNCTION, WAGES, WELFARE FUNCTION, WOOD PRODUCTS, WORLD CRUDE, WORLD ENERGY, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK