A WELFARE ANALYSIS OF EL NINO FORECASTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF FISH MEAL - AN APPLICATION OF STOCHASTIC SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
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This study identifies the potential marine environment and economic effects of El Nino on anchovy, herring and sardine fisheries in the eastern equatorial Pacific. By considering the uncertainly of El Nino, this study used a stochastic spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the social welfare gains of 1997/98 El Nino forecasts in the international trade of fish-meal.