Optimal Chinese Agricultural Trade Patterns under the Laws of Comparative Advantage
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Using Chinese agricultural and resources data and an adaptation of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) international trade model, this paper projects what Chinese trade, production, and consumption patterns would be if China allowed the laws of comparative advantage to direct production and trade decisions. This work is motivated by the fact that current production and consumption patterns in China are likely very different from those that would exist under complete liberalization. Any econometric-based model must use current production patterns as a base against which policy changes can be evaluated; however, the greater role of market forces following trade liberalization may render the conclusions of the econometric model invalid.