Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 : Hard Choices

World Bank

Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 : Hard Choices

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. As Indonesians await the results of a presidential election on July 9, 2014 and plan for the upcoming inauguration of a new president in October, they face hard policy choices. The past decade of solid growth has contributed to considerable development progress. Indonesia now has the world's tenth largest economy in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms; however, there remains a clear risk that the recent moderation in economic growth could intensify. Against a backdrop of weakening revenue growth and rising energy subsidy spending, this would further constrain development expenditures in critical areas such as infrastructure, social protection and health. The new government will face an evolving global environment, which is expected to pick up speed later this year. The price of Indonesia's top six exports, accounting for 50 percent of total export revenues, continues to soften, falling by 8.6 percent in 2014 through June, led by coal (down 15.2 percent). The recent volatility of oil prices, due in part to the turmoil in Iraq, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Indonesia's fiscal position to higher international oil prices. Real GDP growth in Indonesia moderated to 5.2 percent year-on-year and 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in the first quarter of 2014. Safeguarding hard-fought poverty reduction and social protection progress in Indonesia also calls for enhancing the management of disaster risks. This edition of the IEQ examines one such disaster risk: forest and land fires.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT MECHANISMS, ADJUSTMENT POLICIES, ADVANCED COUNTRIES, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURE, AMORTIZATION, AMORTIZATIONS, ARREARS, ASSET PRICES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK CREDIT, BANK LIQUIDITY, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKS, BASIS POINTS, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARK YIELDS, BOND, BOND PRICES, BOND YIELDS, BORROWING COSTS, BUDGET DEFICIT, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORT, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONTINGENCY PLANNING, COSTS TO BORROWERS, CREDIT BANK, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT SPREADS, CURRENCY DEPRECIATION, CURRENCY MARKET, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT LEVELS, DEFICITS, DEFLATION, DEMOCRACY, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT INTEREST, DEPOSIT INTEREST RATE, DEPOSIT RATE, DEPOSIT RATES, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISBURSEMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, DIVIDEND, DIVIDEND PAYMENTS, DOMESTIC BONDS, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT BONDS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ASSETS, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, ENROLMENT RATES, EQUIPMENT, EQUITIES, EQUITY INDICES, EQUITY PRICES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT SECTOR, EXPORT SHARE, EXPORTERS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL FUNDING, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL ASSET, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS, FINANCING COSTS, FINANCING NEEDS, FINANCING REQUIREMENTS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FIXED INVESTMENT, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN LOANS, FUTURE GROWTH, GDP DEFLATOR, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKETS, GLOBAL RISK, GOVERNMENT BOND, GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOLDINGS, HOUSEHOLDS, ID, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME TAX, INCOMES, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INTEREST PAYMENT, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL BORROWING, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, INVESTOR PURCHASES, ISSUANCE, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR MARKET, LENDING SPREADS, LIMITED ACCESS, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOAN APPROVALS, LOAN REPAYMENTS, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DATA, MARKET LIQUIDITY, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SEGMENTATION, MARKET VOLATILITY, MONETARY AUTHORITY, MONETARY POLICY, MULTIPLIER EFFECT, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NET EXPORTS, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, OFFSHORE INVESTOR, OFFSHORE INVESTORS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO CAPITAL, PORTFOLIO CAPITAL INFLOWS, PORTFOLIO FLOWS, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, POWER PARITY, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIVATE EQUITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL GDP, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RESERVES, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL CREDIT, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SAVINGS, SECURITIES, SECURITIES ISSUANCE, SELLING PRICE, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL WELFARE, SPOT MARKET, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCK EXCHANGE LISTING, SUBSIDY COSTS, SUPPLY SHOCK, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX COLLECTION, TAX REVENUES, TOTAL OUTPUT, TOTAL REVENUE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE TAXES, TRADING, TRANSACTION, TRANSPORTATION SERVICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WEALTH