The impact of oil supply shocks on the global food import bill
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This information note examines the impact of oil supply shocks on the global food import bill.Recent geopolitical events in the conflict in the Middle East have affected global energy markets, given the region’s central role in oil production and its critical transit routes. Disruptions or threats to oil supply translate into higher international oil prices, which act as a global cost shock for agrifood systems.Oil plays an essential role in food production, processing, transportation, and cold storage. Consequently, disruptions in oil supply affect food prices and increase food import bills (FIB), which is a major concern for nations that rely on imported food. The impact of an oil supply shock can be compounded by elevated geopolitical risks, which raises concerns that oil shocks may have non‑linear and amplified effects compared to more tranquil periods. This reflects heightened uncertainty, precautionary behaviour, tighter financial conditions, and stronger pass‑through of energy costs along global supply chains during episodes of increased geopolitical stress.