Migration, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico
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Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
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Part of the rationale for the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was that it will
increase trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows,
creating jobs and reducing migration to the United States
(U.S.). Since poor data on illegal migration to the United
States make direct measurement difficult, data on migration
within Mexico, where census data permit careful analysis,
are used instead to evaluate the mechanism behind
predictions on migration to the United States.
Specifications are provided for migration within Mexico,
incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities, and
networks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor market
variables enter very significantly and as predicted once
possible credit constraint effects are controlled for.
Greater exposure to FDI and trade deters outmigration, with
the effects working partly through the labor market.
Finally, some tentative inferences are presented about the
impact of increased FDI on Mexico- U.S. migration. On
average, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a 1.5 to 2
percent drop in migration.
Palabras clave
ARBITRAGE, ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, BULLETIN, CENSUS OF POPULATION, CENTRAL BANK, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, COST OF LIVING, CREATING JOBS, CULTURAL CHANGE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, EARNING, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITY, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, EQUILIBRIUM WAGES, EXCESS SUPPLY, EXPECTED WAGES, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FAMILY RESPONSIBILITIES, FISCAL POLICY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FREE TRADE, FUTURE GROWTH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE, HOSPITAL, HOSPITAL BEDS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSING, HUMAN RESOURCES, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION REFORM, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INNOVATIONS, INTERNAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, JOB SEARCH, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET IMPACT, LABOR MARKET VARIABLES, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MIGRATION, LABOR STATISTICS, LABOR SUPPLY, LABOUR, LABOUR FORCE, LDCS, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL LABOR MARKET, MIGRANT, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION, MIGRATION DATA, MIGRATION FLOWS, MORTALITY, MUNICIPALITIES, NOMINAL WAGES, NURSES, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PREVIOUS STUDIES, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, QUALITY OF LIFE, REAL WAGE, RENTS, RESPECT, RETIREMENT, SAVINGS, SECONDARY SCHOOLS, SKILLED WORKERS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SPILLOVER, SPOUSE, STATE UNIVERSITY, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORTATION, UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS, UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRATION, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URBAN AREAS, URBAN EMPLOYMENT, URBAN EMPLOYMENT SURVEY, UTILITY FUNCTION, UTILITY THEORY, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGE EFFECT, WAGE GROWTH, WAGE LEVEL, WAGE RATE, WAGES, WEALTH, WORKER, YOUNG MEN