Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks
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Washington, DC : World Bank
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This book is a collection of essays that
seeks to answer three interrelated sets of questions about
Africa's recent growth recovery. The first set of
essays addresses questions about the drivers and durability
of Africa's growth. How different is current economic
performance compared to Africa's long history of
boom-bust cycles? Have African countries learned to avoid
past mistakes and pursued the right policies? How much of
the current performance depends on good luck such as
favorable commodity prices or the recovery of external
assistance and how much depends on hard-won economic policy
reforms. A second set of essays looks at the role of donor
flows. External assistance plays a larger role in
Africa's growth story than in any other part of the
developing world. As a result, the economic management of
external assistance is a major public policy challenge, and
donor behavior is a significant source of external risk. The
third set of essays looks at questions arising from
commodity price shocks especially from changes in the price
of oil. Relative to factors such as policy failures,
conflicts, and natural disasters, how important are
commodity price shocks in explaining output variability in
African countries? Compared to the oil price shocks in the
1970s, why have recent higher oil prices apparently had less
impact on Africa's growth? Oil is also now an important
source of revenue for several oil exporting countries in
Africa; what are the economic challenges faced by those
countries? How should one analyze the macroeconomic and
distributional impact of external and oil price shocks? As
the essays in this volume show, laying the policy and
institutional basis for longer-term growth, managing
volatile commodity prices and aid flows, and turning growth
in average incomes into growth in all incomes remain
formidable but manageable challenges if Africa is to reach
its turning point.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTABILITY, ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE LEVEL, AGGREGATE OUTPUT, AGRICULTURE, AID EFFECTIVENESS, ANNUAL CHANGE, ANNUAL GROWTH, AUTOREGRESSION, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE GROWTH RATES, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, BAD GOVERNANCE, BENCHMARKING, BONDS, BUSINESS CYCLE, CAPITA GROWTH, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CASE STUDIES, COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE, COMPETITIVE EXCHANGE RATE, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, COPYRIGHT CLEARANCE, COPYRIGHT CLEARANCE CENTER, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS, CORRUPTION, COSTS OF PRODUCTION, COUNTRY CASE, COUNTRY DATA, COUNTRY LEVEL, CRIME, DEBT, DEBT RELIEF, DECLINING WAGES, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DIVERSIFICATION, DONOR AID, DYNAMIC RESPONSES, ECONOMIC BOOM, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FLUCTUATIONS, FOREIGN AID, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH EPISODE, GROWTH PATH, GROWTH PATTERN, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH PROSPECTS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH STANDARD DEVIATION, GROWTH VOLATILITY, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INFLATION, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME GROWTH RATE, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES, INEQUALITY, INFANT MORTALITY, INFLATION, INPUT-OUTPUT, INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT, INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNAL FACTORS, INTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INVESTMENT RATES