Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious
demographic transition that will shrink its population at
one of the highest rates in the world within the next few
decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal
implications of this demographic transition by using a
long-term model, which integrates the demographic
projections with social security, fiscal and real economy
dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest
that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions,
Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert
significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth
in the medium and long term. However, the results also
demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a
significant role in mitigating some of these effects.
Policies that induce higher labor force participation,
promote productivity and technological improvement, and
provide better education outcomes are found to counteract
the negative consequences of the demographic shift.
Palabras clave
aging, fiscal sustainability, growth, economic policy