Forecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

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dc.creatorHoffman, Linwood A.
dc.creatorIrwin, Scott H.
dc.creatorToasa, Jose
dc.date2017-04-01T20:03:42Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T02:57:11Z
dc.descriptionA futures price forecasting model is presented which uses monthly futures prices, cash prices received, basis values (cash prices less futures), and marketing weights to forecast the season-average farm price for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat. Accuracy of model forecasts are examined using standard measures, such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE). Tests for statistical differences between the futures model forecast and price projections from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), are conducted using the modified Diebold-Mariano test statistic. Forecast encompassing tests are conducted to determine whether the futures model forecasts would benefit by combining them with WASDE forecasts.
dc.identifierdoi:10.22004/ag.econ.9889
dc.identifierhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9889/files/sp07ho03.pdf
dc.identifierhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9889
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/523565
dc.languageeng
dc.publisher
dc.sourcehttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9889
dc.titleForecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
dc.typeText

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