From Double-Dip Recession to Fragile Recovery
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After the double-dip recession, as a
group the six South East European countries (SEE6)- Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Serbia-are now making a fragile recovery. Last year the
recession in the Eurozone had adverse impact on external
demand and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in SEE6 and the
severe winter and a summer drought crippled agriculture and
affected trade, energy, and economic activity overall.
However, the recovery in SEE6 is still tentative. In some
countries nonperforming loans, sluggish credit recovery,
continued deleveraging, and fiscal consolidation are
exerting a drag and recovery in SEE6 is unlikely to
accelerate as long as the Eurozone remains in recession. The
SEE6 region is projected to grow 1.7 percent in 2013,
signaling the end of the 2012 double-dip recession. Even
though growth will in general be fragile, it will be on the
upswing in all six countries. Kosovo again is expected to
have the highest growth (3.1 percent), thanks to major
public investments and a significant inflow of remittances.
Against the backdrop of this tentative and fragile recovery,
SEE6 countries should, as argued in the last report,
intensify their efforts to reform structural areas. Fiscal
consolidation efforts should become easier now that the
output and revenue outlook is improving. The investment
climate needs to be improved substantially, especially in
the main areas of weaknesses: construction permits and
licenses, barriers to entrepreneurship, and skills and
infrastructure. One of the main worries in this nascent
recovery is that SEE6 economies are plagued by high
unemployment, especially youth unemployment, and they are
not creating jobs fast enough to absorb new entrants into
the labor force. Emigration continues as the current
environment for doing business exacerbates the difficult
labor market conditions.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO INFORMATION, ACCESS TO JOBS, ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ARREARS, ASSET OWNERSHIP, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK LENDING, BANK OF GREECE, BANKING INSTITUTIONS, BANKING REFORM, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTOR ASSETS, BANKS, BENEFICIARIES, BOND, BUSINESS ENTRY, BUSINESS STARTUP, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIOS, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANK BILLS, CENTRAL BANKS, CLAIMANTS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, CONSOLIDATION, CORRUPTION, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT POLICIES, CREDIT RATINGS, CREDIT SUPPORT, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT INSTRUMENTS, DEBT POLICIES, DEBTS, DEMAND-SIDE FACTORS, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT INSURANCE, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISABLED, DISBURSEMENTS, DOMESTIC BANKS, DOMESTIC CURRENCIES, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC DEBT, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CLIMATE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPLOYEE, EMPLOYERS, EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENTREPRENEUR, ENTREPRENEURS, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, ETHNIC MINORITIES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL MIGRATION, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTORING, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CAPITAL, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICY, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN FINANCING, FORMAL WORKFORCE, GENDER, GENDER EQUALITY, GENDER GAPS, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GROUP OF FIRMS, HOME OWNERSHIP, HOST COUNTRY, HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSING, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, ILLITERACY, IMPEDIMENTS TO BUSINESS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME TAX, INDEBTEDNESS, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INFORMAL WORKERS, INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS, INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, INSURANCE AGENCIES, INSURANCE PROTECTION, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTEREST RATES ON LOANS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL BONDS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT PLANS, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, ISSUANCE, JOB CREATION, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOBILITY, LAWS, LEGAL SYSTEMS, LENDING CONDITIONS, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, LIMITED ACCESS, LIQUID ASSETS, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARDS, LOAN, LOAN MARKETS, LOAN QUALITY, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL ECONOMY, LOCAL MARKET, LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DATA, MATURITIES, MATURITY, MICRO ENTERPRISES, MICRO-DATA, MIGRATION, MINIMUM WAGE, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NATIONAL BANKS, NEW BUSINESSES, NEW ENTRANTS, NEW MARKETS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, PERSONAL INCOME, POLICY DESIGN, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIOS, PRIVATE BANK, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFITABILITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBT INSTRUMENTS, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICIES, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, RECAPITALIZATION, RECEIPTS, RECESSION, REGIONAL BANKS, REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS, REMITTANCES, RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES, RETURN, RETURN ON EQUITY, RETURNS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SELF-EMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOVEREIGN DEBT, START-UPS, STATE GUARANTEES, STOCK MARKETS, STOCKS, SUBSIDIARY, T-BILLS, T-BONDS, TAX BURDEN, TAX BURDENS, TAX CREDITS, TAX SYSTEM, TAXATION, TRADE BALANCES, TRADING, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGES, WELFARE DEPENDENCE