Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia

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dc.creatorAbdulahi, Mohammed Mussa
dc.creatorEgli, Pascal E.
dc.creatorBelayneh, Anteneh
dc.creatorBamutaze, Yazidhi
dc.creatorDejene, Sintayehu Workeneh
dc.date2025-11-11
dc.date2025-12-17T13:05:12Z
dc.date2025-12-17T13:05:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T13:28:26Z
dc.descriptionUnderstanding how climate change will reshape drought dynamics is essential for planning sustainable water and agricultural systems in tropical regions. However, large uncertainties in existing projections limit effective adaptation. To address this, we applied machine learning-enhanced climate projections and satellite-based drought indices to assess drought dynamics in Ethiopia’s Ganale Dawa Basin as a case study. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were analyzed for a historical baseline (1982–2014) and three future periods (2015–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under SSP2-4.5 (a moderate-emission pathway) and SSP5-8.5 (a high-emission pathway) scenarios. Results show that agricultural droughts occurred 34 times during the historical baseline. Under SSP2-4.5, their frequency declined to 10 in the mid-future, before rising to 16 events in the far future. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 projected increased variability with 33 events in the near future, dropping to 2 in the mid-future, and increasing again to 19 in the far future. Hydrological droughts were more persistent, with a baseline frequency of 31 events, and 26–36 events over future periods under both scenarios. These findings reveal increasing variability in agricultural drought and continued recurrence of hydrological drought. The findings emphasize a dual adaptation approach combining immediate agricultural responses with sustained water management and climate mitigation.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/178922
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/60506
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceAbdulahi, M.M.; Egli, P.E.; Belayneh, A.; Bamutaze, Y.; Dejene, S.W. (2025) Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia. Climate 13(11): 231. ISSN: 2225-1154
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectresearch
dc.titleImpact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia
dc.typeJournal Article

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