Measuring the Impact of a BSE Announcement on U.S. Retail Beef Sales: A Time-Series Analysis
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On December 23, 2003, Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman announced that
the United States Department of Agriculture had diagnosed the first U.S. case of
bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as “mad cow
disease.” This study uses supermarket sales data to analyze the effect of the BSE
announcement on U.S. retail beef sales, finding a statistically significant disruption
of sales. In addition, we develop a forecast of retail beef sales revenues in the
hypothetical absence of BSE. The forecast implies that the BSE announcement
may have reduced domestic retail beef revenues in excess of $11 billion in the
post-BSE period.