Quarterly and Shorter-Term Price Forecasting Models Relating to Cash and Futures Quotations for Pork Bellies
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Quarterly and monthly three-equation models designed to predict (a) wholesale cash
prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, (b) quarterly consumption, and (c) end-of-quarter stocks were developed and fitted, based on data for 1957-71. The major methodological contribution was a demand-for-storage equation that combined a statistical technique developed by Nerlove to measure ?rice expectations with a formula of supply expectations based on data published in the U.S. Department of Agriculture quarterly Hogs a.'ld Pigs report. The models appeared to give reliable forecasts of the endogenous variables for the first half of 197'2, which represents a period beyond the period of fit. Least squares regression equations for predicting pork belly production up to two quarters ahead and models for predicting weekly changes in pork belly prices are also presented.