Exploring the impact of alternative population projections on prices, growth and poverty developments
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This study aims at exploring the implications for future economic growth and poverty of
different agricultural price trajectories through scenario analysis. Agricultural prices are
not a given but the end result of underlying changes in demand and supply.
Acknowledging that the future is uncertain we assess the implications of contrasting
developments in population, a key driver of agricultural prices, through its impact on
demand.
Using MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we develop
three scenarios. The reference or baseline scenario is built upon the “Middle of the road”
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2), projecting from 2010 to 2030 with no major
divergence from historical patterns. We then construct alternative high and low price
scenarios by varying assumptions on population growth. The aim is not to predict the
future but to systematically think through how different paths of a key driver changes
how the world may look. Any model covering the entire world economy uses a large
number of assumptions with varying levels of empirical support. We therefore also
highlight key assumptions which need more empirical scrutiny to improve our
understanding of the likely direction of future development