Assessing Schedule Delay Propagation in the National Airspace System
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Flight delay propagation or “ripple” is a well-known phenomenon in the National
Airspace System (NAS). It is when delay on one flight leg carries forward to a future
flight leg for the same aircraft due to the practice of airlines scheduling multiple flight
legs per aircraft. The research investigates where delay propagation is occurring in the
NAS by analyzing historical data. A backtracking algorithm is proposed to tally delay
that is experienced on the ground and in the air for each flight leg, which later becomes
observable schedule delay at downstream airports. Results are shown across different
time periods, carriers, weather conditions, and airports.