South East Europe Regular Economic Report, June 2012
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Washington, DC
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After they achieved 2.2 percent growth
in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six
countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Serbia) are slowing drastically and can expect just 1.1
percent growth in 2012. Economic conditions in the Euro zone
are holding back economic activity and depressing government
revenues in SEE6 countries. With both public debt and
financing pressures high, most countries in the region need
to embark on major fiscal consolidation programs if they are
to reverse their adverse debt dynamics and avoid financing
problems down the road. The good news is that in general the
SEE6 financial sectors are still relatively well placed,
despite elevated risks and vulnerability to adverse shocks,
especially the possibility of contagion if the Greek crisis
should intensify. The bad news is social: SEE6 countries
have the highest unemployment and poverty rates in Europe.
Yet even with the difficult short-term situation, SEE6
countries now have historic opportunity to board the
European 'convergence train' and over the long
term reduce their per capita income gap with developed
European Union (EU) countries. All earlier entrants were
able to 'catch up quickly.' In principle, the same
'convergence train' is now pulling into the EU
candidate countries in SEE6; but these gains are not
automatic, they will materialize only if country policies
and reforms facilitate them. The long-term SEE6 structural
reform agenda must leverage greater trade and financial
integration and reform labor markets and the public sector.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADVERSE EFFECT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEET, BANK CREDIT, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, BANK LENDING, BANK OF GREECE, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKING SYSTEMS, BANKRUPTCY, BANKRUPTCY LAW, BANKRUPTCY PROCEDURE, BONDS, BOOST TO GROWTH, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CADASTRE, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIOS, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCIAL BORROWING, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, CONFIDENCE INDICES, CONSOLIDATION, CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT INFORMATION, CREDIT INFORMATION SYSTEM, CREDIT LINE, CREDIT RATING, CREDITORS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY BOARD, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT LEVELS, DEBT PAPER, DEBT SERVICING, DEBT SERVICING COSTS, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DIVIDEND, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC BANK, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC CAPITAL, DOMESTIC CAPITAL MARKETS, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPLOYMENT, ENFORCEMENT SYSTEM, ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE, EQUIPMENT, EQUITY INDEX, EUROBOND, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEFICITS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FINANCING SOURCES, FISCAL BURDEN, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED EXCHANGE RATES, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN FINANCING, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN PORTFOLIO, FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, FUTURE GROWTH, GLOBAL BOND, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GROWTH RATE, HOST COUNTRIES, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME TAX, INCOME TAXES, INDIVIDUAL FIRMS, INFLATION, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INSURANCE, INTEREST EXPENDITURES, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, INVESTOR INTEREST, ISSUANCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LAWS, LEGISLATION, LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK, LENDERS, LEVEL OF DEBT, LIQUIDATION, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS, LOAN PROCEEDS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DEVELOPMENT, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET EFFICIENCY, MARKET PERFORMANCE, MATURITY, MIGRATION, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NOTARY, NPL, OIL PRICES, OPEN ECONOMIES, OUTPUT, OVERSIGHT PROCESSES, PENSION, PENSION REFORM, PENSION REFORMS, PENSION SYSTEMS, PENSIONS, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO FLOWS, PRIVATE CREDIT, PRIVATE CREDIT BUREAU, PRIVATE FINANCING, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTIVITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, RAPID GROWTH, REAL ESTATE, REAL GROWTH RATES, REAL SECTOR, REFORM PROGRAM, REGIONAL TRADE, REGULATORS, REMITTANCES, REORGANIZATION, RETIREMENT, RETURN, RETURNS, RETURNS ON EQUITY, RISK PREMIUM, RULE OF LAW, SELF-REGULATION, SETTLEMENT, SINGLE MARKET, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOVEREIGN DEBT, SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKET, SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEMS, STOCK MARKET, STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY, SUBSIDIARIES, SUBSIDIARY, SUPERVISORY AUTHORITIES, TAX, TAX ADMINISTRATION, TAX COMPLIANCE, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TAXATION, TRACK RECORD, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE RELATIONS, TRANSPARENCY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT, WAGES