Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy

World Bank

Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy

Autores

World Bank

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

This report is about agriculture sector of Romania which is endowed with high quality natural resources and tops the European Union (EU) ranking by the share of the agriculture sector in the economy. However, Romanian agriculture has low productivity, and rural areas are disproportionally poor. An important factor in low productivity is the large share of small agricultural holdings. The sector needs to consider adaptation to a changing and less favorable climate going forward, as well as mitigate Gree House Gas (GHG) emissions. The impact of green adaptation policies and investments on sectoral outcomes in agriculture and related costs were assessed through joint modeling of water and agriculture. The projected decrease in water availability due to rising temperatures will push up the demand for water for irrigation, thus increasing the already existing demand-supply gap. Water sector modeling analyzed the impact of climate change on yields of nine crops over twelve basins in the baseline scenario and found that rainfed yields mostly decrease under all climate scenarios, with a varying severity of impact among types of crops and increasing impact over time, while the irrigated crops’ yields improve. Irrigation was found to be most significant adaptation measure providing the largest gains in yields. Two mitigation measures, both supported by the EU and the National Rural Development Program (NRDP) are considered in the agriculture mitigation analysis using the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC): minimum tillage and manure management. The most effective adaptation measures for Romanian agriculture are rehabilitated and modernized irrigation to restore irrigated production to currently rainfed areas and optimization of agronomic inputs accompanied by high-quality extension services. Improvements in good farming practices, like manure management and minimizing erosion through afforestation, can also reduce vulnerabilities. Financing needs for the two recommended mitigation measures–no tillage agriculture and manure management--are low and are highly beneficial from the point of view of sector efficiency. Finally, strengthening policy and institutional capacity is vital to support the recommended interventions

Palabras clave

AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS, RISKS, FERTILIZER, FARM POPULATION, TEMPERATURE, EMISSIONS INTENSITY, ORGANIC FARMING, AGRICULTURE SECTOR, CARBON, INCOME, YIELD LOSS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, DISCOUNT RATE, EMISSIONS, REVENUES, POWER SUPPLY, TOMATOES, MODELS, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, FARM INCOME, PLANNING, MARGINAL ABATEMENT, CROP VARIETIES, RURAL POPULATION, MEASURES, BIOMASS, MAIZE, PRESENT VALUE, SUNFLOWER, COMMERCIALIZATION, SCENARIOS, FARMING PRACTICES, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE, FLOODS, CAPACITY, GHG, SOIL EROSION, SOYBEANS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, FARM SIZE, CROP DIVERSIFICATION, FINANCIAL FLOWS, ALFALFA, FORESTRY, FARMING, FARMERS, BEETS, BARLEY, NATURAL RESOURCES, PRECIPITATION, EMISSIONS REDUCTION, CROPS, ABATEMENT COST, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, CROP YIELDS, RURAL COMMUNITIES, CROP, CLIMATE CHANGE, POLICIES, DEMAND FOR WATER, VALUE, CLIMATE, DEMAND, ABATEMENT, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, ABATEMENT POTENTIAL, AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, FERTILIZER APPLICATION, MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST, RURAL, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, NET COST, POLICY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WATER AVAILABILITY, POTATOES, DESERTIFICATION, IRRIGATION, FARM, GROUNDWATER, AGRICULTURAL YIELD, RURAL AREAS, FARMS, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, SUPPLY, WHEAT, INVESTMENTS, YIELDS, POOR, RENEWABLE ENERGY, SUGAR BEETS, WATER FOR IRRIGATION, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, AFFORESTATION, PRICES, TILLAGE, BENEFITS, WINTER WHEAT, RAINFED AREAS, ENERGY, SUGAR