Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response

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World Bank, Washington, DC

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This report summarizes the findings of an Allocative efficiency analysis on Moldova`s national HIV epidemic and response conducted in 2014-15. The report addresses core questions for resource allocation such ‘How can HIV funding be optimally allocated to the combination of HIV response interventions that will yield the highest impact?’ or ‘What level of investment is required to achieve national targets, if we allocate resources optimally?’. The report describes epidemiological and HIV financing trends as well as identifies sub-populations, which are most affected by the epidemic. Based on this information, the optimized mix of interventions for minimizing new HIV infections and deaths is identified using mathematical modeling techniques. Required investments into programs for key populations and antiretroviral treatment are established and translated into policy recommendations. Moldova continues to experience a concentrated HIV epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and their clients and their sexual partners in the general population. The HIV epidemic is more severe on the left bank of the Nistru River, where coverage of prevention programs is lower. The country could increase the impact of its HIV response by increasing investment from US$8.7 million to US$14.2 million. Optimally allocating resources will result in a 36 percent decrease in incidence and a 48 percent decrease in HIV-related deaths.

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HIV, health financing, epidemic

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