Ex-Ante Economic Impact Analysis of Novel Traits in Canola
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This study evaluates the potential economic impacts of ten novel traits in canola by employing a stochastic economic surplus model. Nitrogen use efficiency, water use efficiency, flea beetle resistance, cold/freeze tolerance and drought tolerance traits were found to have the largest economic impacts. Major beneficiaries of the surplus benefits are consumers, and Canadian producers and innovators. The magnitudes of economic impacts varied substantially across the three major canola growing provinces in Canada. Net benefits were found sensitive to supply elasticity and time spent in R&D and regulatory approval. The benefits, however, were not very sensitive to alternative probability distribution assumption for adoption rate, and correlation of adoption rate with expected yield change.