AN EVALUATION OF THE RICE OUTLOOK AND SITUATION PRICE FORECASTS
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The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts.