Yield Probabilities as a Markov Process
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The shape and consequences of fortuitous events are
subjects of much discussion in economics. Wheat
yields on dryland are one member of such a set of
events. Much research effort has been devoted to establishment
of causal factors in observed yield variability
and in attempts to derive probability models
without waiting for causal understanding. The discussion
that follows is another in the list of attempts
of the latter kind. Thanks are due James S. Plaxico
of Oklahoma State University, others of the GP-2
Technical Committee, and members of the Farm Economics
Division, Economic Research Service staff in
Washington, D.C., who read the manuscript and
suggested improvements.