Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation
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This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic
impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia.
A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and
severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4 C warming, and predict 13, 38
and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability
are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach
that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments. The model accounts
for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of
some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops.
The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a
moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely
to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are
estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments
in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted
as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some
years are very low.