Climate futures for western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX-SA [Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia]

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dc.creatorDhaubanjar, Sanita
dc.creatorPandey, Vishnu Prasad
dc.creatorBharati, Luna
dc.date2020-03-30
dc.date2020-01-27T10:11:33Z
dc.date2020-01-27T10:11:33Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T18:31:28Z
dc.descriptionWith the objective to provide a basis for regional climate models (RCMs) selection and ensemble generation for climate impact assessments, we perform the first ever analysis of climate projections for Western Nepal from 19 RCMs in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Using the climate futures (CF) framework, projected changes in annual total precipitation and average minimum/maximum temperature from the RCMs are classified into 18 CF matrices for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 4.5/8.5), three future time frames (2021–2045/2046–2070/2071–2095), three geographic regions (mountains/hills/plains) and three representative CF (low-risk/consensus/ high-risk). Ten plausible CF scenario ensembles were identified to assess future water availability in Karnali basin, the headwaters of the Ganges. Comparison of projections for the three regions with literature shows that spatial disaggregation possible using RCMs is important, as local values are often higher with higher variability than values for South Asia. Characterization of future climate using raw and bias-corrected data shows that RCM projections vary most between mountain and Tarai plains with increasing divergence for higher future and RCPs. Warmer temperatures, prolonged monsoon and sporadic rain events even in drier months are likely across all regions. Highest fluctuations in precipitation are projected for the hills and plains while highest changes in temperature are projected for the mountains. Trends in change in annual average discharge for the scenarios vary across the basin with both precipitation and temperature change influencing the hydrological cycle. CF matrices provide an accessible and simplified basis to systematically generate application-specific plausible climate scenario ensembles from all available RCMs for a rigorous impact assessment.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/106723
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/158403
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rightsLimited Access
dc.sourceMpandeli, S.; Nhamo, Luxon; Moeletsi, M.; Masupha, T.; Magidi, J.; Tshikolomo, K.; Liphadzi, S.; Naidoo, D.; Mabhaudhi, T. 2020. Assessing climate change and adaptive capacity at local scale using observed and remotely sensed data. Weather and Climate Extremes, 140(4):2201-2225. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100240
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjectwater resources
dc.subjectimpact assessment
dc.subjectprecipitation
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectuncertainty
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectmeteorological stations
dc.subjectdecision support
dc.subjectmountains
dc.titleClimate futures for western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX-SA [Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia]
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional para el Manejo del Agua (IWMI)