World Agriculture in a Dynamically-Changing Environment: ifpri's long-term outlook for food and agriculture under additional demand and constraints
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In this paper, we explore the nature of several key drivers of change in food systems, and examine a number possible entry points for policy intervention, in order to determine their effect on food prices and other marketdriven outcomes. Among the drivers of change that we discuss are those of policy-driven growth in biofuel production, which has had a role to play in the rapid increase in food prices, along with other factors. We demonstrate the off-setting impact that supply growth cou ld have on the socio-economic impacts of biofuels, both in terms of price changes, as well as changes in nutrition status. We also look at some evidence that points towards the significant impact that climate change could have on the agriculture and agricultural prices in the future. Combining our quantitative experiments with cited evidence from other studies, we suggest a range of policy interventions that could be instrumental in offsetting the negative impacts of food prices, and hel ping to promote those benefits in situations where they might exist. Among these suggestions, we encourage increased investments in the agricultural sector, so as to reverse the steadily declining growth of research and development spending and change decades of counter-productive agricultural trade and national-level sector policies.