Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorChapagain, D.
dc.creatorDhaubanjar, Sanita
dc.creatorBharati, Luna
dc.date2021-09
dc.date2021-09-26T21:11:24Z
dc.date2021-09-26T21:11:24Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T18:42:38Z
dc.descriptionExisting climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low-and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/115165
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/163340
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceChapagain, D.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna. 2021. Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal. Climatic Change, 168(1-2):8. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8]
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectextreme weather events
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjecttrends
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectprecipitation
dc.subjectriver basins
dc.subjecthighlands
dc.subjectlowland
dc.subjectrain
dc.subjectmonsoons
dc.subjectnatural disasters
dc.subjectimpact assessment
dc.subjectwater resources
dc.subjectenergy
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectforests
dc.subjectbiodiversity
dc.subjecttourism
dc.subjectpublic health
dc.titleUnpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal
dc.typeJournal Article

Archivos

Colecciones

Instituto Internacional para el Manejo del Agua (IWMI)