Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance

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dc.creatorMaliszewska, Maryla
dc.creatorDevarajan, Shantayanan
dc.creatorOsorio-Rodarte, Israel
dc.creatorGo, Delfin S.
dc.creatorTimmer, Hans
dc.date2013-09-26T18:32:15Z
dc.date2013-09-26T18:32:15Z
dc.date2013-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:50:44Z
dc.descriptionAfter an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935395/stress-testing-africas-recent-growth-poverty-performance
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6517
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/411859
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6517
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectADVERSE IMPACT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL GROWTH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOME
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOMES
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INCREASES
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCAPITAL SURPLUSES
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCOUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subjectDAMAGES
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT RELIEF
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDENSITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT REPORT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectECONOMIC COSTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFACTOR PRICES
dc.subjectFAMINE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOW
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFOOD IMPORTS
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCT
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL LEVEL
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectGROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
dc.subjectGROWTH MODEL
dc.subjectGROWTH MODELS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHIGH INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMPACT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLDCS
dc.subjectLESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLONG RUN
dc.subjectLONG-TERM GROWTH
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLOWER DEMAND
dc.subjectLOWER PRICES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMARGINAL COST
dc.subjectMARGINAL RETURNS
dc.subjectMICRO MODEL
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectNATIONAL ECONOMIES
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectNET CAPITAL
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectOIL SECTOR
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOPULOUS COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINES
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectPRICE OF OIL
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectREDUCING POVERTY
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRICH COUNTRIES
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL INCOME
dc.subjectRURAL POVERTY
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSCENARIOS
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
dc.subjectSTATE INTERVENTIONS
dc.subjectSUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCK
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
dc.subjectTOTAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.subjectCGE models
dc.titleStress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance

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