Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basin

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dc.creatorDembélé, Moctar
dc.creatorVrac, M.
dc.creatorCeperley, N.
dc.creatorZwart, Sander J.
dc.creatorLarsen, J.
dc.creatorDadson, S. J.
dc.creatorMariéthoz, G.
dc.creatorSchaefli, B.
dc.date2024-04-18
dc.date2024-04-30T23:47:24Z
dc.date2024-04-30T23:47:24Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T18:26:24Z
dc.descriptionGlobal warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between +1 % and +80 % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between −19 % and −7 %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between −4 and +3 d, while MAM could shift between −4 and +14 d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/141693
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/155895
dc.languageen
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceDembele, Moctar; Vrac, M.; Ceperley, N.; Zwart, Sander J.; Larsen, J.; Dadson, S. J.; Mariéthoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2024. Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basin. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (PIAHS), 385:121-127. (Special issue: IAHS2022 - Hydrological Sciences in the Anthropocene: Variability and Change Across Space, Time, Extremes, and Interfaces) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024]
dc.subjectextreme weather events
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectriver basins
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.titleFuture shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River Basin
dc.typeJournal Article

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