Estimating the Trade Duration of Kazakhstan’s Wheat Exports
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The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models explicitly testing for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. The results imply that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depend on the market share of Russian wheat exports, abolishing restrictive export policies, and maintaining good trade relationships with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies.