Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand

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dc.creatorGouel, Christophe
dc.creatorGuimbard, Houssein
dc.date2017
dc.date2024-06-21T09:23:46Z
dc.date2024-06-21T09:23:46Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:29:38Z
dc.descriptionEstimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/106078
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/147973
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/148643
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/148617
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceGouel, Christophe and Guimbard, Houssein. 2017. Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1631. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069
dc.subjectincome
dc.subjectfoods
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjectdemand
dc.subjectpopulation
dc.subjectnutrition
dc.subjectmarkets
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectdiet
dc.subjectcommodity markets
dc.subjectprices
dc.titleNutrition transition and the structure of global food demand
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)